The harsh truth: The only way for Tom Aspinall to win the championship belt is to wait for Jon Jones to retire.

The UFC heavyweight division has long been one of the most competitive and unpredictable weight classes in the sport. With a blend of knockout artists, elite grapplers, and well-rounded fighters, it takes a special kind of athlete to rise to the top. Tom Aspinall, a rising star in the heavyweight division, has shown incredible talent and potential. However, the biggest roadblock standing between him and the championship belt is none other than the legendary Jon Jones.

Tom Aspinall: The Future of the Heavyweight Division?

Aspinall’s Skill Set and Rapid Rise

Since making his UFC debut, Tom Aspinall has impressed fans and analysts alike with his well-rounded skills. Unlike many heavyweights who rely solely on power, Aspinall possesses speed, agility, and technical proficiency that make him a dangerous contender.

• Exceptional Boxing: Aspinall’s background in boxing gives him a significant advantage in striking exchanges. He moves like a much lighter fighter, making him hard to hit and lethal in counterattacks.

• Underrated Grappling: Though primarily known for his striking, Aspinall has a strong grappling game. He holds multiple submission victories and has showcased impressive takedown ability against top opponents.

• Fight IQ and Adaptability: One of his greatest assets is his ability to adjust mid-fight, reading his opponents and finding openings to exploit.

Despite these strengths, there remains one glaring issue: he has never faced a fighter like Jon Jones.

Jon Jones: The Greatest Heavyweight Roadblock

Jones’ Unmatched Legacy

Jon Jones is widely considered one of the greatest mixed martial artists of all time. His dominance in the light heavyweight division, coupled with his successful move to heavyweight, makes him an almost insurmountable challenge for any contender, including Aspinall.

• Unparalleled Versatility: Jones is known for his ability to fight in any position. Whether striking, wrestling, or using his elite fight IQ, he adapts better than any other heavyweight.

• Championship Experience: Jones has been in high-stakes fights for over a decade. His ability to remain composed under pressure gives him a distinct edge over less experienced contenders like Aspinall.

• Physical Advantages: With an 84.5-inch reach, incredible strength, and unmatched durability, Jones is built to dominate in any weight class.

Given Jones’ credentials, it’s hard to see Tom Aspinall getting past him. This leads to the uncomfortable reality: Aspinall’s best path to the title is waiting for Jon Jones to retire.

Why Tom Aspinall Can’t Beat Jon Jones—Yet

1. Lack of Experience Against Elite Competition

While Aspinall has looked phenomenal, he has yet to face the absolute best in the division. He has impressive wins, but none have come against someone with the fight IQ and all-around ability of Jon Jones. Without this experience, he may struggle against Jones’ unpredictable and dynamic style.

2. Jon Jones’ Unmatched Defense and Game Planning

Jones has made a career out of neutralizing his opponents’ strengths. Fighters who rely on striking get picked apart at range, while grapplers find themselves unable to take him down. Aspinall’s strengths would likely be nullified by Jones’ game planning and adaptability.

3. Wrestling Disadvantage

While Aspinall has solid grappling, he has never faced a wrestler as technically proficient as Jon Jones. With his takedown defense, vicious ground-and-pound, and submission skills, Jones could completely dominate Aspinall on the mat.

Aspinall’s Best Strategy: Waiting for Jones to Retire

1. Gaining More High-Level Experience

If Tom Aspinall wants to be the true heavyweight king, he must first prove himself against the division’s best. Fights against elite contenders like Ciryl Gane, Sergei Pavlovich, or Curtis Blaydes would allow him to refine his skills and prepare for championship-level competition.

2. Improving Defensive Wrestling

One of the biggest challenges for Aspinall would be defending against elite wrestlers. To stand a chance against Jon Jones, he needs to significantly improve his takedown defense and ability to fight off his back.

3. Developing a More Patient Approach

Aspinall is known for finishing fights quickly, but rushing in against Jon Jones is a recipe for disaster. Learning to pace himself and fight methodically could be the key to surviving against a champion as experienced as Jones.

What Happens If Jones Retires?

If Jon Jones retires after defending his title once or twice, the heavyweight division would be wide open. This would be the perfect opportunity for Tom Aspinall to step in and claim the belt. With his unique skill set, he could become the new dominant force in the division.

However, if Aspinall rushes into a fight with Jones too soon, it could set him back years. A devastating loss against the GOAT would not only hurt his momentum but could also mentally affect his future performances.

Conclusion: Should Aspinall Wait or Take His Shot?

The harsh reality is that Tom Aspinall’s best chance of winning the championship is to wait for Jon Jones to retire. While some may argue that he should take his shot now, history has shown that fighting Jon Jones unprepared usually leads to disappointment.

If Aspinall continues to refine his skills, gains experience against top-tier heavyweights, and works on his weaknesses, he could position himself as the rightful heir to the throne once Jones decides to walk away. Until then, patience may be his greatest weapon.