Will Soto’s Future Be Legendary? A Glimpse Through the Lens of Baseball History

Juan Soto: Heading Towards a Historic Contract

Juan Soto, the 25-year-old baseball sensation, has proven himself to be one of the brightest stars in Major League Baseball (MLB). With an impressive career from a very young age, he is on track to secure one of the largest contracts in baseball history, potentially nearing the $700 million guarantee that Shohei Ohtani received from the Los Angeles Dodgers last offseason. While Ohtani dazzles with his two-way skills as both a hitter and pitcher, Soto focuses solely on hitting, and his remarkable success at such a young age makes him a rare and valuable talent in MLB.

Over the course of his 7-year career, Soto has accumulated 4,088 plate appearances, hitting 201 home runs with a .285/.421/.532 slash line and an impressive 160 OPS+. He has earned 4 All-Star selections, 5 Silver Slugger awards, a World Series championship in 2019, and a batting title. These accomplishments place him among the most outstanding young players in baseball history.

What stands out most about Soto is his rare combination of 200 home runs and 700 walks at age 25, an achievement that is nearly impossible to find in baseball history. Soto is the only player to reach this milestone with an OPS+ of 160. When comparing his career to that of legends such as Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Mike Trout, it becomes clear that Soto’s trajectory could place him among the greatest players in MLB history, with immense potential for future success.

Historical Comparisons Point to a Bright Future

Looking at players with similar early-career statistics, we find that those who have reached milestones like 100 home runs, 200 walks, and an OPS+ of 140 or higher by age 25 have generally enjoyed long and successful careers. Out of the 18 players who met these criteria, 9 are in the Hall of Fame, including all-time greats like Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron. These players maintained elite performance well into their 30s, with most continuing to post strong numbers even after turning 30. This bodes well for Soto’s future, suggesting that he could sustain his power and performance into his late 20s and early 30s.

The ideal scenario for Soto would see him following in the footsteps of legends like Mays and Aaron, continuing to hit 30+ home runs per season and maintaining an OPS+ around 160 throughout his late 20s and early 30s.

Sustained Performance into Soto’s 30s

While Soto’s future contract is expected to be a record-breaking deal, it is important to consider how his performance will age. Historical comparisons show that the most successful hitters in Soto’s category maintain strong performance well into their late 20s and early 30s. Players like Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Frank Thomas had outstanding seasons through their 20s and early 30s. Although some players experience a decline in their 30s due to injuries, hitters of Soto’s caliber often age more slowly, maintaining productivity as they enter their 30s.

The key factor in determining Soto’s future is his health. Players like Ken Griffey Jr. and Darryl Strawberry experienced significant setbacks due to injuries, but Soto’s talent and current form suggest that, if he stays healthy, he can avoid such pitfalls and continue to be one of the best players in baseball.

With his remarkable achievements in just seven seasons, Juan Soto is poised to secure one of the largest contracts in MLB history. Looking at comparisons from the past, it is clear that players who have reached Soto’s level of performance at such a young age often enjoy successful careers that last well into their 30s. If Soto can maintain his current form and stay healthy, his upcoming contract will likely go down as one of the best free-agent signings in baseball history. Regardless of how large the deal turns out to be, Soto’s future in MLB is incredibly bright.