Joe Burrow’s stellar season but is heavily impacted by receiver drops

Joe Burrow delivered a career-best season in 2023, solidifying his reputation as one of the NFL’s most precise and productive quarterbacks. However, a closer look at his stats reveals that his performance could have been even more impressive if not for an unusually high number of dropped passes by his receivers. Despite this, Burrow continues to set records and showcase his elite accuracy, cementing his status as one of the league’s best.

The Impact of Receiver Drops on Burrow’s Season

Receiver drops were a significant obstacle for Joe Burrow in 2023. According to data analyzed by Steven Patton, Burrow ranked third among NFL quarterbacks in passing Expected Points Added (EPA) lost due to drops. His receivers dropped a staggering 32 passes, the most in the league, narrowly edging out Aaron Rodgers’ team, whose pass-catchers dropped 30.

Although the Cincinnati Bengals led the NFL in pass attempts—throwing the ball 68 more times than the next closest team—the volume doesn’t fully explain the drops. These mistakes highlight how much more productive Burrow’s season could have been if his receivers had capitalized on his precision. Drops cost Burrow and the Bengals valuable opportunities to extend drives and score points.

Burrow’s Record-Setting Accuracy and Efficiency

Despite these challenges, Burrow demonstrated why he’s considered one of the most accurate quarterbacks in NFL history. He currently holds the league’s career record for completion percentage (68.6%), a testament to his ability to deliver catchable passes consistently, regardless of the circumstances.

Even with frequent drops, Burrow managed to maintain elite efficiency and drive the Bengals’ offense. This resilience underscores his value as a leader and playmaker, proving that quarterback accuracy can overcome even significant team-wide execution issues.

How Burrow Stacks Up Against Other Quarterbacks

Burrow’s place on the list of quarterbacks most impacted by drops highlights the challenges he faced compared to others in the league. Mason Rudolph (+0.17 EPA lost to drops) and Anthony Richardson (+0.14 EPA) were the only quarterbacks more affected than Burrow (+0.13 EPA). Following closely were Spencer Rattler and Trevor Lawrence, both at +0.12 EPA.

Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts (+0.03 EPA) and Jared Goff (+0.04 EPA) experienced far fewer lost opportunities due to drops, reflecting stronger support from their receivers. The disparity emphasizes the need for the Bengals to address this issue, ensuring that Burrow’s pinpoint throws translate into completed plays in the future.

Unlocking Burrow’s Full Potential

Joe Burrow’s 2023 season was extraordinary, even with the persistent challenge of dropped passes. His league-leading accuracy and ability to elevate the Bengals’ offense demonstrate his elite skill set and resilience under pressure.

To unlock Burrow’s full potential in the coming seasons, the Bengals must focus on reducing dropped passes. Improvements could come from enhanced training, personnel adjustments, or refining offensive schemes. By ensuring that Burrow’s precise throws result in completions, the team can maximize its offensive output.

With Burrow continuing to set records for completion percentage and showcase his unmatched efficiency, the Bengals are poised for even greater success. Addressing this critical issue could be the key to taking both Burrow’s career and the team’s performance to the next level.